Key Points
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Electric vehicle giant Tesla is developing AI-powered humanoid robots, claiming it could begin selling them by late 2027.
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Although no specifics were offered, AI powerhouse OpenAI recently confirmed it, too, plans to enter the robot race.
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OpenAI’s interest in the robotics business makes it clear that Tesla won’t be in the business alone. It also highlights the existence of multiple competitors.
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ChatGPT parent company OpenAI is looking beyond the virtual world and eying the real one.
That’s the takeaway from OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman’s recent post on X, anyway. As part of his call for artificial intelligence (AI) engineers, Altman said the company is looking for “engineers to help us program and manufacture robots that are useful for society.” No interpretation needed.
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The question is: What does this mean for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which in January suggested it could be selling autonomous humanoid robot assistants — called Optimus — by the end of next year?
Shaking up the still-new AI robotics business
Without knowing more about Altman’s vision, it’s too soon to say whether OpenAI will be a direct competitor to Tesla, which appears intent on building humanoid robots to handle warehouse and household tasks. OpenAI may end up making robotics meant for industrial assembly lines, dangerous drilling work, or agricultural duties.
There’s little doubt, however, that these two companies will eventually compete with one another on the autonomous robot front.
And that’s more of a problem for Tesla and its shareholders than it is for OpenAI and its future investors, if it ever goes public, for one simple reason. That is, Tesla stock is already priced at a steep premium. For perspective, Tesla shares are currently trading at nearly 13 times next year’s projected revenue of $118 billion and 160 times 2027’s expected earnings per share of around $2.60. Both are wildly high, suggesting the stock isn’t just priced for perfection, but dominance … of multiple markets.
Next year’s results still won’t fully reflect any robot revenue that begins flowing for Tesla in 2027, if any at all. For that matter, it’s unlikely OpenAI will have any actual physical robots to start selling next year either.
Much can happen between now and then, though. If nothing else, it gives current and would-be shareholders time and reason to consider the possibility that a well-established rival could compete with Tesla on the robotics front, perhaps eventually even in the humanoid assistant market. And it doesn’t hurt that ChatGPT still dominates the AI chatbot landscape, with a near-80% market share, according to numbers from Statcounter. If there’s any integration or robot management to be done, it should be handled with relative ease using OpenAI’s popular app.
Altman’s new focus does something else, too. That is, in that OpenAI already backs robotics start-up 1X Technologies and has previously collaborated with Figure AI, it not only illustrates how other tech companies could enter the robotics market, but also highlights the fact that many such robotics companies like Agility Robotics, Symbotic, and NEURA Robotics — just to name a few — already exist.
Yes, it’s a (slight) concern
Don’t misread the message. Tesla will probably beat everyone else to the personal AI-powered robot market. It’s unlikely to dominate this business, though, the way the company dominated the electric vehicle market as it became mainstream. It’s the sheer unknown of the matter that works against the stock.
From this perspective, OpenAI’s interest in robotics should give Tesla shareholders pause, even if only a modest one.
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James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Symbotic and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
